Trends in age profiles of surgical patients over 4 years in a Belgian tertiary hospital
Aged, Belgium/Epidemiology, Forecasting, Surgical Procedures, Operative/Statistics and Numerical Data, Surgical Procedures, Operative/Trends
Published online: May 17 2024
Abstract
Background: In surgical care, advancing age is associated with more specific and long-lasting care with more complications and a higher mortality rate. In order to take the right precautions in the long term, with the aim of improving patient care and reducing the pressure on care and costs for hospitals and healthcare, it is important to review the past and understand likely future trends in the epidemiology of the surgical population.
Objective: To perform a first investigation on the impact of the age profile of the ageing general Belgian population on the age profile of the surgical population.
Design and setting: A time trend ecological retrospective, single-centre study was conducted at the Ghent University Hospital.
Methods: After approval by the Ethical Commission of the centre, all patients admitted for surgery with anaesthetic care during a 4-year period were included in this study. The proportion of surgical patients in different age groups and their change in age profile over time were analysed. Official public data on the epidemiology and forecasted trends of age groups were used as inputs to estimate the future growth in the surgical population.
Main outcome measures: Age distribution of the surgical population compared to the Belgian population.
Results: Between January 1st, 2016 and December 31st, 2019, 124.189 surgical episodes (28,1%%of all episodes) were recorded. Percentage of patients > 74 years old in the surgical population ranged from 4.4 % to 4.9 % and from 3.9 % to 4.3 % for males and females, respectively. This corresponds with an underrepresentation for females by factor 0.71-0.73 and an overrepresentation for males by factor 1.26-1.4 in relation to the general Belgian population. Using these factors, specific for each observation year and each 5 year group, a prediction for the evolution of the surgical population up until 2038 was calculated.
Conclusions: At the Ghent University Hospital, differences are found between the age profile of male and female patients and between the age profiles of the general population. These disparities are seen as a unique fingerprint of hospital practices and represent a specific dynamic modelling the impact of an ageing population on future hospital resources.
Trial registration: No trial registration was required.
